Roger Federer is 41-12 in his Davis Cup career as the Swiss prepare to take on the U.S. in the first round of the World Group. (Matt King/Getty Images)

The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week’s focus is on the Davis Cup.

Davis Cup: Welcome to the Twilight Zone. Of the top five men, only one is playing Davis Cup this weekend, and that man is Roger Federer. Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer have ruled themselves out of Spain’s tie against Kazakhstan, while Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are sitting out Serbia’s and Great Britain’s ties against Sweden and the Slovak Republic, respectively, to rest and heal up. That leaves Roger.

Davis Cup is one of the few tiny holes in Federer’s career resume, as the Swiss are still seeking their first Davis Cup title. And though Federer hasn’t made it a top priority in the past, expect him to make a push this year with the Olympics coming up and Switzerland’s strong presence in the World Group. He’ll join his Swiss mates (read: Stan Wawrinka) when they host an American team led by Mardy Fish and John Isner in Fribourg, Switzerland. Federer & Co. shouldn’t have too much difficulty with the Americans, who are without the services of Andy Roddick or new baby-daddy Bob Bryan, so the Davis Cup tie to watch for the weekend is happening north of the American border in Vancouver.

Canada is back in the World Group after a gutsy 2011 run in the fall, gaining promotion with the help of Vasek Pospisil’s three-point run (three wins in three days) against Israel. The Canadians will field a healthy team of Milos Raonic, Pospisil, Frank Dancevic and doubles specialist Daniel Nestor as they take on an experienced, if not unpredictable, French team that’s comprised of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau and Michael Llodra. Canada has been playfully trash-talking for months and it’s time for its young stars to deliver.

In other ties, Alex Bogomolov Jr. makes his debut as the No. 1 Russian in their tie against Austria, Kei Nishikori will see what he can do as Japan takes on Croatia, and Germany hosts the Argentines, who will be without Juan Martin del Potro.

WTA action in Paris: Fresh off Russia’s 3-2 victory over Spain in Fed Cup, Maria Sharapova tops a quality field in Paris, which includes: Li Na, Sabine Lisicki, Julia Goerges, and Jelena Jankovic. These women are coming straight from Fed Cup ties all over the world, so keep an eye on second-seeded Marion Bartoli. Despite being the top Frenchwoman, she was once against left off her Fed Cup team due to her ongoing feud with the French Federation of Tennis (their refusal to let her father coach her during the Fed Cup is one of many reasons), so she should be fresh for Paris.

Here are a few first round matches to look out for in Paris: Lisicki vs. Lucie Safarova, Jelena Jankovic vs. Yanina Wickmayer and Christina McHale vs. Kaia Kanepi. If Lisicki can get past Safarova, she would be on track to meet Sharapova in the third round, a match that would be well worth watching.

Rafael Nadal was 0-6 vs. Novak Djokovic last year, including 0-2 in major finals. (Icon SMI; Getty Images)

MELBOURNE, Australia — Novak Djokovic’s remarkable 2011 season included a 43-match winning streak, three Grand Slam tournament victories, 10 titles overall and a 70-6 record. But the most mind-boggling number of all was this: The Serb went 6-0 against Rafael Nadal, all in finals and twice in majors.

That Djokovic flipped the script so suddenly against the fiercest competitor in tennis was the story of the year. Djokovic had never defeated Nadal in a final before last year and no one foresaw his turning the tables so quickly and decisively, especially considering that Nadal had won three Grand Slam titles in 2010 and prevailed in both meetings with Djokovic. But Djokovic handled the Spaniard in the biggest tournaments, on three different surfaces, including twice on Nadal’s beloved red clay. When Djokovic beat him for a sixth consecutive time, in the U.S. Open final in September, Nadal looked broken both in spirit and body, bending over with his hands on his knees, the athlete’s signal for a tap-out.

Nadal, a 10-time Grand Slam champion, hasn’t spent much time as anyone’s punching bag in his career, and he vowed after the U.S. Open to “accept the challenge and work” to halt Djokovic’s dominance. Nadal’s first opportunity to do just that comes Sunday, when the top two players in the world meet in the Australian Open final (3;30 a.m., ESPN2), their Open Era-record third consecutive clash in a major-championship match.

Read More…

Victoria Azarenka (left) has defeated Maria Sharapova in their two matchups in finals, including one in Key Biscayne, Fla., last April. (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

MELBOURNE, Australia — The caterwauling about the caterwauling will be left to others. Yes, Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka make a lot of noise when they play tennis. And yes, it’s recommended that you watch the Australian Open women’s final with the volume down and the windows closed.

But enough about the grunting. Let’s get to the tennis, because there is plenty at stake.

The WTA’s No. 1 ranking is on the line in a Grand Slam final for the first time since the 2009 Australian Open, when Serena Williams routed Dinara Safina to reclaim the top spot. If the fourth-seeded Sharapova wins Saturday’s match (3:30 a.m. ET, ESPN2), she would become No. 1 for the first time since June 2008. If the third-seeded Azarenka wins, she would improve to 12-0 this year and become No. 1 for the first time, replacing good friend Caroline Wozniacki.

Read More…

Novak Djokovic (left) beat Andy Murray 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 in last year's Australian Open final. (Getty Images)

MELBOURNE, Australia — After defeating Roger Federer in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Thursday, Rafael Nadal was asked whether he’d rather face Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray in the final.

“I prefer the player who is going to play worse that day,” Nadal deadpanned.

An artful dodge by the 10-time Grand Slam champion, but it’s a relevant question. Nadal spent 2011 being tormented by Djokovic, going 0-6 against the Serb with two losses in major finals and four losses in Masters finals. Meanwhile, Nadal ended Murray’s quest for his first Grand Slam tournament title three consecutive times, knocking off the Scot in the semifinals of the French Open, Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.

Nadal, without tipping his hand, did turn serious in addressing Friday’s Djokovic-Murray match (3:30 a.m. ET, ESPN2), saying: “The level of tennis of both players is fantastic. … I’m going to watch the match, because it’s going to be a fantastic show.”

Can Murray make it so? The good news for Murray is that, given Djokovic’s outstanding 2011 season — which included a thrashing of Murray in the Australian Open final and two other major titles — and the world No. 1′s dominant form here this year, Murray isn’t being given much of a chance. (Murray did beat Djokovic in Cincinnati last year when Djokovic retired trailing 6-4, 3-0; the 24-year-old Serb has won six of 10 meetings overall.)

Why is being a big underdog good news? It means that Murray, 24, should feel like he has nothing to lose, enabling him to play with the freedom he needs to challenge Djokovic. This match will be the first true test for Murray’s new coach, Ivan Lendl. Can he get his man in the right frame of mind to compete at his best?

“I’ve always liked playing against him,” Murray said of Djokovic, who was 70-6 with 10 titles last year. “And yeah, after the year that he had, the loss [in the 2011 Australian Open final] didn’t look so bad six months later.”

Speaking before Djokovic advanced to the semifinals, the fourth-seeded Murray added: “I’d like to get the chance to play him again.  It would be a good marker to see how I’ve improved since last year.”

Murray’s serve will be key. Djokovic, who has a tournament-high 37 service breaks in five matches, won’t have trouble getting traction as the returner if Murray serves as poorly as he did in the quarterfinals against Kei Nishikori. In that match, Murray served at only 44 percent but managed to save eight of 10 break points. Murray needs to hold easily in order to take pressure off himself and get in position to take more risks on Djokovic’s service games.

Djokovic says he’s fine despite tweaking his hamstring and having breathing issues in his quarterfinal victory against David Ferrer. Taking him at his word, I’m picking Djokovic to win in straight sets and secure his 400th Tour victory.

What better way to start the year than with a major final to see if Nadal has solved the Djokovic riddle?

Check back here later for live analysis of Djokovic vs. Murray.

WERTHEIM: Nadal flips the script on Federer | Sharapova, Azarenka set for high-stakes final
PHOTOS: Australian Open 2012 | Best fans | Fashion hits | Fashion misses | Offbeat pictures

Petra Kvitova beat Maria Sharapova in the 2011 Wimbledon final, their first meeting in a Slam. (Icon SMI)

MELBOURNE, Australia — Serena Williams’ absence aside, you couldn’t have asked for better matchups in the women’s semifinals of the Australian Open.

Two veteran former No. 1s, who hold seven Grand Slam trophies between them, join two youngsters who are widely regarded as the most promising members of their generation. And with Petra Kvitova, Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova vying for the top billing, the talk about a Slam-less No. 1 finally will end. Kvitova can clinch No. 1 on Thursday if she defeats Sharapova and Kim Clijsters knocks off Azarenka, while Sharapova and Azarenka need to win the tournament to take the top spot.

Here’s a look at the two evenly matched semifinals. The first match listed will begin no sooner than 9:30 p.m. ET at Rod Laver Arena, followed by the second match. Both will air live on ESPN2.

Victoria Azarenka vs. Kim Clijsters: Clijsters used the word “tough” repeatedly in describing this match against Azarenka, who indeed has tended to play the Belgian that way. Clijsters leads the head-to-head 4-2, with all four victories on hardcourts, but Azarenka notched her first hard-court win in the series in their most recent meeting, a 6-3, 6-3 triumph in Miami last year.

“She’s playing extremely well, playing with a lot of confidence, and she’s going to be a completely different match than what I was up against [Tuesday],” Clijsters said after her quarterfinal win over soon-to-be former No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki. “[Azarenka] takes a lot more initiative, hits a lot down the middle of the court, deep, hard. So it’s going to be very important to be dominant.”

Read More…

Novak Djokovic is set to face David Ferrer in the Australian Open quarterfinals, and leads their head-to-head 6-5. (Zumapress)

The Australian Open quarterfinals will conclude on Day 10. The bottom half of the men’s semifinals is already set with a marquee matchup in Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal, and after Day 10, we could see the top four seeds in the semis for the second consecutive Grand Slam event. On the women’s side, the No. 1 ranking is still up for grabs after Kim Clijsters ousted Caroline Wozniacki in the quarters. Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova take the court Wednesday in the hunt for the top spot.

Click here for the complete order of play for Day 10 at the Australian Open. Click here for the TV schedule.

Petra Kvitova vs. Sara Errani (first match, Rod Laver Arena): These two have never played before and it marks the first time Errani has reached the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam event. Errani has no weapons that should trouble Kvitova, so the match will be entirely on Kvitova’s racket. Errani’s best bet is to utilize her better-than-average speed to get a few extra balls back in hopes that Kvitova will become an unforced-error machine. But she simply doesn’t have enough pace on her groundstrokes to bother Kvitova, and don’t think the Czech is unaware of that. Kvitova should come into this match relaxed and hitting freely. Kvitova in 2.

Read More…

Roger Federer (left) will take on Juan Martin del Potro in the Aussie Open quarters, who beat him for the 2009 U.S. Open title. (Reuters)

The best thing about having so few major upsets in the first week of a Grand Slam event is now, as we get into the business end of the tournament, the matchups are the ones we want to see. The women’s and men’s quarterfinals each feature a U.S. Open final rematch; in fact, those two matches will be played back-to-back Tuesday.

Click here for the complete order of play for Day 9 at the Australian Open. Click here for the TV schedule.

Victoria Azarenka vs. Agnieszka Radwanska (second match, Rod Laver Arena): These two good friends are meeting for the second time this year and the 10th time in their careers, a remarkable number for two players who are only 22. Azarenka has won six of nine meetings, and she came back to beat Radwanska in the Sydney semifinals earlier this month after dropping the first set 6-1. Their last three matches have gone the full three sets, so expect a battle here.

Since surviving a tough first-round match against Bethanie Mattek-Sands, Radwanska has been on form and hasn’t dropped a set. Azarenka, meanwhile, has been the most consistently dominant player through four rounds. Expect Azarenka to come out on top, but under the afternoon sun (it’s expected to be the hottest day of the tournament), Radwanska’s funky game could get under Azarenka’s skin.

Read More…

Click here for the complete order of play for Day 8 at the Australian Open. Click here for the TV schedule.

Petra Kvitova vs. Ana Ivanovic (first match, Rod Laver Arena):Ivanovic is a bit under the weather, but the 2008 Australian Open finalist has cruised through three rounds without dropping a set. The Serb has a 3-0 record against Kvitova, with all those victories coming during her reign as one of the WTA’s best in 2008 and 2009. Times have obviously changed and the two haven’t played in almost three years. The Kvitova of now is definitely not the Kvitova of then, and Ivanovic will need some help from the Czech (who can be error-prone) to have a chance to reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal for the first time since 2008. “It’s just very exciting to be in a second week,” Ivanovic said after Saturday’s victory against Vania King. “That was a first step. It’s nice to be able to achieve that.  Now it’s going to be tough matches, match after match. But I still believe I can do well.  I’m just enjoying competing again.  It’s going to be tough, but I love challenges.”

Serena Williams vs. Ekaterina Makarova (third match, Rod Laver Arena): The 56th-ranked Makarova has had a heck of a tournament, beating Kaia Kanepi (who won the Brisbane tune-up) and reducing seventh-seeded Vera Zvonareva to tears in a straight-set win in the third round. But on paper, this looks like a steamroll for the powerful Williams. Serena has had a few hiccups in Melbourne, so we still haven’t seen the five-time champion hold her form from start to finish. This might be the match that knocks the last bit of rust off the wheels.

Read More…

Click here for the complete order of play for Day 7 at the Australian Open. Click here for the TV schedule.

Roger Federer vs. Bernard Tomic (first night match, Rod Laver Arena):  In our SI.com preview roundtable, one of my bold predictions was that Federer would lose before the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time since the 2004 French Open. I also predicted that Andy Murray and Maria Sharapova would crash out early, so really, what do I know? But there’s a touch of destiny about Tomic’s run this week, with the 19-year-old rallying to win two five-setters (against No. 22 Fernando Verdasco and No. 13 Alexandr Dolgopolov) to position himself to play his idol in his home country on Rod Laver Arena at night for a shot at the quarterfinals.

Tomic took a set off Federer on grass at the end of last year in their only career meeting, but that’s a different ballgame. Given my current trend of being horribly wrong in my predictions, look for Federer to get through. But if Tomic’s entertaining and variety-filled match against Dolgopolov on Friday was any indication, this duel between The Kid and the The Genius should be engaging.

Kim Clijsters vs. Li Na (third match, Rod Laver Arena): The WTA has bucked the trend of unpredictability, which has set up explosive matchups in the fourth round. And no fourth-rounder is as exciting as this rematch of last year’s final. It’s cruel that this clash is happening so early in the tournament, as both the 11th-seeded Clijsters and No. 5 Li are playing well enough to make it out of their half of the draw. Li comes into the match battle-tested, having defeated Petra Kvitova and Marion Bartoli in lead-up tournaments, whereas Clijsters hasn’t faced any top 10 players this year. In fact, she hasn’t beaten a top 10 player since last year’s Australian Open. I like Li’s chances here against the defending champion.

Read More…

Bernard Tomic took down Fernando Verdasco in five sets and Sam Querrey in four on his way to a third-round matchup with Alexandr Dolgopolov. (Reuters)

Click here for the complete order of play for Day 5 at the Australian Open. Click here for the TV schedule.

It’s still an odd sight to pull up the daily order of play and see Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer playing on the same day, back-to-back, no less. The top men should progress on Friday (Nadal is 2-0 against Lukas Lacko and Federer is 9-1 against Ivo Karlovic), so here are the other matches I’ll be watching on Day 5.

Bernard Tomic vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov (first night match, Rod Laver Arena): Andy Murray tapped Tomic as one of the players he enjoys watching and said he’d be tuning into this match. “There will be some junk in that match, for sure,” Murray said. Indeed there will be. Few players are as unconventional in their shot-making as these two. While Tomic may not overwhelm with power, he uses constant variety to ensure that the match is played on his terms. Dolgopolov’s variety doesn’t have quite the same effect, but creative use of his backhand slice combined with his athleticism can be dangerous. Just ask Robin Soderling, who suffered a five-set upset loss to Dolgopolov here last year. (Here’s Bruce Jenkins’ piece on Dolgopolov written after his run in Moselle last year.)

Tomic is 0-3 against the Ukrainian, though their last two matches went the full three sets (at Shanghai and Sydney last year). The Australian has showed impressive focus in the tournament, and his unflappable nature could be the difference here against the unpredictable Dolgopolov.

Read More…