After capturing the Madrid Open title, Roger Federer hasn’t announced whether he will play in the Italian Open. (Getty Images)

ROME — If you can believe it, we’re one week away from the start of the French Open (qualifying begins May 22nd) and it’s only now that we’ll get to see (hopefully) a full ATP and WTA field go at it on the traditional European red clay. The Internazionali BNL D’Italia is already underway in Rome, where tournament organizers are waiting with bated breath to see if Roger Federer will withdraw from the tournament. The newly crowned Madrid champ landed in Rome on Monday, but says he’ll wait to make a decision after he gets a couple of days rest.

If Federer’s body is feeling the ill-effects from Madrid — his first tournament since losing to Andy Roddick in Miami — then it makes sense not to risk his health this close to the French Open. But that would mean his only preparation for the French would be a quasi-indoor tournament on blue clay that bears no resemblance, in color or play, to the dirt in Paris. That’s a tough calculus to make, but I’d be surprised to see him skip Rome. If Federer does play then we’ll have the top four into a draw for the first time since Miami.

Men’s draw breakdown

Djokovic’s half: Novak said coming back to the red clay in Rome after the calamity of Madrid “felt like paradise.”  The Italians love him here and why wouldn’t they? He has an Italian clothing sponsor and he’s fluent in the native language as well. The defending champion has drawn Federer in his half, along with Juan Martin del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Janko Tipsarevic and John Isner. Del Potro and Tsonga are scheduled for a third round clash and if Isner can put together a string of wins, he could face Federer in the quarterfinals in a rematch of their Davis Cup match. Keep an eye on John. He needs to make a statement here after a disappointing loss in his first match in Madrid.

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Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the highest-ranked men's player in action this week as he makes his debut at the BMW Open. (Getty Images)

After two weeks of seeing packed fields all over Europe in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Stuttgart, the diasporic tendencies of the tours return this week, as we see some of the top men in action, though unfortunately, not necessarily at the same tournaments.

BMW Open: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Feliciano Lopez lead the German-afied field in Munich. A glance at the draw and you see a heck of a lot of black, yellow and red. There are eight Germans in the field, an impressive number considering I’d have trouble naming eight German players — male or female — off the top of my head. Marin Cilic and Bernard Tomic are also in action, with Tomic still trying to figure out how to use his varietal game on clay. The young Aussie has yet to win back-to-back main draw matches on clay in his career.

Potential early round matches to watch: Tommy Haas vs. Michael Berrer (first round), Ernests Gulbis vs. Xavier Malisse (first round), Lopez vs. Tomic (third round), Mikhail Youzhny vs. Marin Cilic (third round), Marcos Baghdatis vs. Tsonga (third round).

My pick: Lopez def. Tsonga

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World No. 1 Victoria Azarenka returns to action in Stuttgart for the first time since losing in Miami. (Getty Images)

The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week, the top eight women are in Stuttgart, Germany, and Rafael Nadal heads to Barcelona fresh off a title run in Monte Carlo.

Stuttgart

The ladies take center stage this week as Stuttgart sees a draw filled with the entire top eight, the first clay court appearances of the year for Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova and Agnieszka Radwanska, and a welcome homecoming for the German women, all of whom have excelled in the last year. This is a big tournament for the top five women, all of whom will be jockeying for position over the next month to see who are the real contenders and pretenders for the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen.

In a head-shaking twist of fate for Radwanska, she’s been drawn once again in Azarenka’s half and they could meet in the semifinals. Radwanska has to be hoping that their matchup turns with the change of surface: all four of her losses in 2012 have been to Azarenka on hard court. As for Vika, this will be her first tournament since her streak-snapping loss to Marion Bartoli in Miami. She’s been working with Amelie Mauresmo in Monaco to get ready for the clay season. I’ll be curious to see how it all comes together. She’s shown that she can be good on clay but she hasn’t been great (perhaps the patience required on the surface works against her).

The bottom half of the draw holds all the power: Barring a bad performance, Sharapova, Kvitova and Sam Stosur are the favorites to come out of this half, with Caroline Wozniacki and Angelique Kerber as the dark horses. A Stosur-Sharapova quarterfinal could be a doozy.

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Rafael Nadal has won seven straight titles at the Monte Carlo Masters. (Julian Finney/Getty Images)

The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week, Rafael Nadal aims for his eighth straight Monte Carlo title, while the Fed Cup features some intriguing ties.

Monte Carlo

Cliche alert: What happens when immovable object meets unstoppable force? Rafael Nadal hasn’t lost in Monte Carlo since 2003 (his first year playing the event) and he’s going for a jaw-dropping eighth straight title there. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic, the man who owned him in 2011 and beat him twice on clay last year, has decided to crash the party and kick off his French Open tune-up campaign in Rafa’s sandbox. How dominant has Nadal been in Monte Carlo? In the last five years he’s lost only two sets. To say he’s comfortable in Monte Carlo is an understatement.

So what do we make of his chances this year? Nadal withdrew from the semifinals of Miami because of tendinitis in his left knee, and though he’s still in the No. 2 spot, he hasn’t won a title since Roland Garros. But Rafa’s always been able to get his feet back under him in Monte Carlo. Needless to say, a clash between the top two seeds in the final would clearly set the tone for the rest of the clay season.

Of course, both guys need to get to the final, which is no guarantee. Djokovic has the tougher half of the draw, with last year’s finalist, David Ferrer, in his quarter (see the complete draw here). A freshly shorn Andy Murray, who is one of two men in the draw who has taken a set off Nadal in Monte Carlo, has also been drawn into Djokovic’s half. But Murray, who defeated Djokovic earlier this year in Dubai, has never beaten the Serb on clay, and he has a tricky path to the semis himself.

Murray has Victor Troicki in the second round, and could face Jurgen Melzer and Tomas Berdych along the way. All winnable matches for Murray, and yet, would it surprise anyone if he lost one? For the first time in his career, Murray comes into the clay season with a good amount of pressure to back up his strong 2011 results (semifinalist in Monte Carlo, Rome and Roland Garros).

Nadal, on the other hand, shouldn’t face much resistance until the quarterfinals, where he could face fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro (who has never beaten Nadal in seven attempts). From there, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the only potential semifinalist who could give Rafa problems, but the fact is we don’t call him the Clay G.O.A.T. for nothing. I suspect he’ll make it through to the finals with nary a peep (assuming he’s healthy, of course).

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Mardy Fish has a 10-8 singles record in Houston including winning the event in 2006. (David J. Phillip/AP)

The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week, while many of the top men and women are resting up for the heavy part of the clay-court swing, two top stars should have quite a homecoming: John Isner and Caroline Wozniacki.

• Houston: BREAKING NEWS: Americans are not allergic to clay. We learned that pretty quickly over the weekend when Serena Williams destroyed the field in Charleston and Isner continued to show what he’s capable of on the dirt, beating Gilles Simon and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Davis Cup. Now, Isner is flying back to the United States to play in the Men’s Clay Court Championships in Houston, a tournament he says he loves. Houston will also see the return of its top seed, Mardy Fish, who missed Davis Cup due to exhaustion but remains in the draw. Overall, it’s a strong field for an ATP 250, with Feliciano Lopez, Miami semifinalist Juan Monaco, James Blake, Ryan Harrison and Sam Querrey also in the mix.

• Copenhagen: Welcome to Copenhagen, home of the Caroline Wozniacki Invitational, also known as the e-Boks Open. It’s Wozniacki’s home tournament, and the only hard-court tournament in Europe that takes place during the clay season. She’s obviously the top seed, and while the field is generally pretty weak (the last direct acceptance into the main draw went to Laura Robson, ranked No. 123), there are a few names that are worth watching. Jelena Jankovic, who still hasn’t won a match since February, is there trying to jump-start her year, and Angelique Kerber, who has had a strong season (No. 5 in the Race rankings), will try to derail Wozniacki’s coronation.

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Ryan Harrison (above) has replaced Mardy Fish on the U.S. Davis Cup team. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week, the Davis Cup quarterfinals are contested and the Williams sisters compete in Charleston, S.C.

• Davis Cup: The Freedom Fries Special in Monte Carlo headlines the World Group quarterfinals, while Serbia and Spain will be competing without Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, respectively. Here’s a look at the matchups:

– United States at France: The tie was turned upside down Monday when the USTA confirmed that No. 9 Mardy Fish pulled out with what’s being described as a “minor health scare” related to “extreme fatigue.” Ryan Harrison will replace Fish, who won two matches in the Americans’ 5-0 sweep of Switzerland in February. Harrison got his first career Davis Cup victory in that first-round upset, winning a dead rubber against Michael Lammer.

Not to be outdone, the French tennis federation announced that 14th-ranked Gael Monfils, who just returned from a month-and-a-half absence to heal his knees, is also out, this time with an abdominal injury. No replacement has been named, though Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet would be the two obvious choices.

How much the change will affect the Americans is tough to say. Fish has been struggling, failing to win back-to-back matches this year until stringing together three in a row at the Sony Ericsson Open. This could be a great opportunity for the hyper-competitive Harrison, who has never faced French No. 1 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Gasquet and lost a three-setter to Simon at Indian Wells . As for John Isner, can he shoulder the load of being the top American for the weekend and back up his memorable clay win over Roger Federer? If Big John can grab two points for the Americans, it would be officially time to stop wondering if he can do well on clay and start expecting it.

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Novak Djokovic started his quest for a fourth straight Dubai title with a 6-4, 6-2 win over Cedrik-Marcel Stebe on Monday. (Marwan Naamani/AFP/Getty Images)

The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week, eight of the ATP’s top 10 players are in the field in Dubai while most of the WTA takes a rest.

Top Guns: The vacation is over, fellas. Novak Djokovic returns to competition this week in Dubai. If the Serb was looking for a nice and easy week to fine-tune his game before Indian Wells and Miami, he’s not going to get one. Djokovic could have to go through Andy Murray and Roger Federer to defend his title, with the field boasting eight of the top 10 players in the world (only Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer are missing).

If the draw holds to form, things could get very interesting later in the week, with projected quarterfinals between Djokovic/Janko Tipsarevic, Murray/Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga/Juan Martin del Potro, and Federer/Mardy Fish. Should the top four seeds come through, we’ll get a rematch of the punishing Australian Open semifinal between Djokovic and Murray.

Aside from Djokovic, this is an important week for Murray. He slumped horribly last year after losing in the Australian Open final, failing to win a match until Monte Carlo in April. Another similar slump seems unlikely this year. He was much more positive after his semifinal loss in January, as he should have been. With zero points to defend until April, the World No. 4 has a great opportunity to gain some ground in the rankings and close the gap on No. 3-ranked Federer.

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The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week all eyes are on Victoria Azarenka, who takes a 17-match winning streak in 2012 into Dubai. On the men’s side, Andy Roddick aims to defend his title in Memphis.

No. 1 Victoria Azarenka is 17-0 with three titles in 2012. (Karim Jaafar/Getty Images).

• The Vika streak: After winning Doha on Sunday for her third title of the year, Victoria Azarenka’s 2012 is starting to look positively Djokovician. Azarenka made her fifth straight final dating to Luxembourg in 2011, and her 6-1, 6-2 shellacking of Sam Stosur pushed her 2012 record to 17-0. She’ll try to keep it going in Dubai this week, against an even tougher draw. Her season-opening run has been impressive, no doubt, but if she can take the title in Dubai, it’ll officially be time to compare it to “The Streak.”

• Dubai: With the target on Azarenka’s back growing larger with every win, it’s Vika vs. the field in Dubai. That field got weaker on the eve of the tournament as Petra Kvitova — who skipped events in Paris and Doha with an Achilles injury — withdrew with an illness. (Li Na and Vera Zvonareva also pulled out.) Kvitova is the last player to defeat Azarenka, at the WTA Championships in Istanbul in October.

Meanwhile, defending champion Caroline Wozniacki will look to rebound from her second-round loss to Lucie Safarova in Doha last week. She’s projected to face Azarenka in the semifinals, which could be a defining match for both. Azarenka has dropped three in a row to Wozniacki (the last being a withdrawal after trailing 0-3 at Indian Wells last year)  and hasn’t beaten her since Rome in 2009. The Dane’s defensive game seems to bother Azarenka. Add the fact that the two are good friends (though I can’t be the only one who’s noticed a significant decline in tweets between the two since Melbourne) and that semifinal is ripe with potential. Wozniacki would love to knock Azarenka off her perch, even if for only a week. A win would make her relevant again.

Early matches to watch: Julia Goerges vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova (winner plays Azarenka); Ana Ivanovic vs. Francesca Schiavone; Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Sabine Lisicki; Maria Kirilenko vs. Monica Niculescu; Stosur vs. Safarova (second round).

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Victoria Azarenka begins defense of her No. 1 ranking at the Qatar Open. (David Callow/SI)

The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week the top women are in Qatar for Victoria Azarenka’s first tournament as No. 1, Roger Federer looks to rebound  from a disappointing Davis Cup weekend and Andy Roddick returns from injury.

• Qatar Open: The first Premier event since the Australian Open marks a return to action for a number of seeds, including Azarenka, Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Here are the players we’ll be particularly keen to track as the week progresses:

Victoria Azarenka: She hasn’t played a match since winning the Australian Open after withdrawing from Belarus’ Fed Cup series against the United States early this month with a lower-back injury. How focused is she right now, and how will she wear the bull’s-eye that has served as a 100-pound weight for the recent No. 1s and major winners? Azarenka will be tested immediately, as her road to the Doha final could include a surging Mona Barthel, who lost to Azarenka in the third round in Melbourne after winning the Hobart title as a qualifier; Pattaya champion Daniela Hantuchova or the giant-killing Iveta Benesova; Pavlyuchenkova or Francesca Schiavone; and Jelena Jankovic or Agnieszka Radwanska.

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Roger Federer is 41-12 in his Davis Cup career as the Swiss prepare to take on the U.S. in the first round of the World Group. (Matt King/Getty Images)

The Watch List spotlights the must-know storylines for the upcoming week in tennis. This week’s focus is on the Davis Cup.

Davis Cup: Welcome to the Twilight Zone. Of the top five men, only one is playing Davis Cup this weekend, and that man is Roger Federer. Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer have ruled themselves out of Spain’s tie against Kazakhstan, while Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are sitting out Serbia’s and Great Britain’s ties against Sweden and the Slovak Republic, respectively, to rest and heal up. That leaves Roger.

Davis Cup is one of the few tiny holes in Federer’s career resume, as the Swiss are still seeking their first Davis Cup title. And though Federer hasn’t made it a top priority in the past, expect him to make a push this year with the Olympics coming up and Switzerland’s strong presence in the World Group. He’ll join his Swiss mates (read: Stan Wawrinka) when they host an American team led by Mardy Fish and John Isner in Fribourg, Switzerland. Federer & Co. shouldn’t have too much difficulty with the Americans, who are without the services of Andy Roddick or new baby-daddy Bob Bryan, so the Davis Cup tie to watch for the weekend is happening north of the American border in Vancouver.

Canada is back in the World Group after a gutsy 2011 run in the fall, gaining promotion with the help of Vasek Pospisil’s three-point run (three wins in three days) against Israel. The Canadians will field a healthy team of Milos Raonic, Pospisil, Frank Dancevic and doubles specialist Daniel Nestor as they take on an experienced, if not unpredictable, French team that’s comprised of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau and Michael Llodra. Canada has been playfully trash-talking for months and it’s time for its young stars to deliver.

In other ties, Alex Bogomolov Jr. makes his debut as the No. 1 Russian in their tie against Austria, Kei Nishikori will see what he can do as Japan takes on Croatia, and Germany hosts the Argentines, who will be without Juan Martin del Potro.

WTA action in Paris: Fresh off Russia’s 3-2 victory over Spain in Fed Cup, Maria Sharapova tops a quality field in Paris, which includes: Li Na, Sabine Lisicki, Julia Goerges, and Jelena Jankovic. These women are coming straight from Fed Cup ties all over the world, so keep an eye on second-seeded Marion Bartoli. Despite being the top Frenchwoman, she was once against left off her Fed Cup team due to her ongoing feud with the French Federation of Tennis (their refusal to let her father coach her during the Fed Cup is one of many reasons), so she should be fresh for Paris.

Here are a few first round matches to look out for in Paris: Lisicki vs. Lucie Safarova, Jelena Jankovic vs. Yanina Wickmayer and Christina McHale vs. Kaia Kanepi. If Lisicki can get past Safarova, she would be on track to meet Sharapova in the third round, a match that would be well worth watching.